Six months on, Iran war reshaped Middle East, but not as planned

Six months after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the Middle East has undergone significant changes, though not in the manner anticipated by the aggressors. Iran has demonstrated resilience, surviving the assassination of its top leaders and weeks of bombing, while securing potent leverage through control of the Strait of Hormuz. This has caused Gulf Arab nations to question the reliability of the American security umbrella they have depended on for decades, prompting some to seek alternative arrangements. Israel, despite tactical victories against its adversaries, faces increasing international isolation and a potential generational rupture with its closest ally, the U.S. Hopes for normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia have also significantly diminished.

Before the recent conflict, Iran appeared vulnerable, with its currency in freefall and significant anti-government protests suppressed. However, following the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran's leadership was quickly replaced, and its population largely remained quiescent, ignoring calls for uprising. The situation shifted as Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route for oil and gas, and targeted Gulf countries hosting U.S. troops, impacting the global economy. While a ceasefire was agreed upon in April and a deal signed in June, it proved short-lived.

Iran now aims for permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz to deter future attacks and secure concessions, particularly regarding its nuclear program. This strategy is risky, especially as the U.S. tightens sanctions. Experts note that while Hormuz provides Iran leverage, prolonged disruption harms neighbors, China, and the global economy, while incentivizing alternative routes. There is a concern that Iran may misinterpret its survival as victory and demand more than its leverage can sustain.

For decades, the U.S. has guaranteed the security of wealthy Gulf oil exporters. This arrangement has been crucial for global energy markets and regional stability. However, Iran's retaliation extended beyond Israel to Gulf nations and U.S. bases, straining air defenses and depleting interceptor supplies. Iran's attacks on desalination plants in neighboring countries heightened fears of catastrophic consequences for water and electricity infrastructure. The lack of clear political objectives, disregard for regional partners' advice, and absence of a viable Plan B after initial attacks failed to dislodge the Iranian regime are likely to erode confidence in U.S. regional leadership. Saudi Arabia's recent defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey signals a potential shift towards new security arrangements, although viable alternatives to U.S. security networks remain limited for Gulf states.