Key facts
- The war in Iran, initiated by US and Israeli strikes six months ago, has become an unpopular stalemate.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, impacting global energy supplies.
- President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33% amid rising gas prices.
- The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global growth forecast to 3% for the year.
- Iran's military capabilities have been significantly degraded, but it retains offensive weapons.
Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the conflict has evolved into a deeply unpopular stalemate, impacting President Donald Trump's presidency and the global economy. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately one-fifth of the world's energy supplies, remains severely disrupted, contributing to higher oil prices and prompting the International Monetary Fund to lower its global growth forecast to 3% for the year. Despite the economic damage, the global economy has shown resilience, partly due to lower energy intensity and the boom in artificial intelligence.
President Trump's approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, with rising gas prices undermining his campaign promise to lower costs for Americans. Voter approval for the war stands at 31%, lower than comparable stages of previous US conflicts. The war has also exacerbated divisions within the Republican Party regarding military pressure on Tehran.
Iran's military and economy have sustained severe damage, with US forces reportedly destroying 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabling 82% of its air-defense systems. However, Iran retains drones and missiles, continuing to attack shipping and US military installations. In response to the stalemate, the US is shifting back to economic pressure, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicating that new attacks are unlikely for the time being.