Key facts
- The conflict in Iran is straining U.S. munitions stockpiles, potentially delaying weapons deliveries to allies like Australia.
- Australia is prioritizing the development of its domestic guided munitions industry.
- Analysts warn that a high-intensity conflict in the Indo-Pacific could leave Australia dangerously exposed with limited munitions.
- Australia is investing in new missile factories and aims to produce advanced missiles domestically.
- Former U.S. military officials suggest Australia should also develop capabilities in areas like underwater drones.
Australia is accelerating its domestic munitions production capabilities amid concerns that ongoing conflicts, particularly in Iran, are straining U.S. weapons stockpiles and could lead to delays in deliveries of critical U.S.-made missiles. Analysts warn that this situation could leave Australia vulnerable in the event of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
The conflict involving Iran has reportedly depleted a significant portion of the U.S. Pentagon's global stockpile of long-range missiles, such as Tomahawks. This has led to concerns that the U.S. may prioritize replenishing its own inventory, potentially pushing back orders from allies like Australia. Charles Edel, Australia chair for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that the war is putting enormous strain on U.S. stockpiles and will likely extend replenishment timelines, increasing the risk of delays for allies and potentially exposing gaps in their defenses.
Coalition defense spokesperson James Paterson echoed these concerns, stating that recent conflicts have created a global shortage and a long queue for resupply. He warned that in a high-intensity conflict in the Indo-Pacific, Australia would be dangerously exposed with limited stocks of munitions and the inability to manufacture them at scale.
Former U.S. military officials have urged Canberra to prepare for potential shortages and to accelerate the development of a domestic industry for military underwater drones, which can be used for surveillance, mine detection, and offensive purposes. Mark Montgomery, former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command, suggested this presents an opportunity for Australia to become a supplier of asymmetric weapons to the U.S. and its partners.
Despite rhetoric from President Donald Trump about massive U.S. munitions production, administration officials are reportedly worried about a shortfall that could undermine the defense of Taiwan against potential Chinese aggression. The munitions used against Iran, including Tomahawks, JASSM, and PrSM, are considered key in a potential conflict scenario involving China.
Australia has orders for approximately 220 American-made Tomahawk missiles and has approved the sale of up to 450 AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missiles, though deliveries are not expected until 2033. The government has committed $736 million for the AIM-260 acquisition. To address these vulnerabilities, Australia is reviving its domestic munitions industry, which had stagnated since the Cold War. The centerpiece of this effort is the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise, which aims to construct two guided-missile factories by 2029 and an Australian munitions factory by 2030. Kongsberg Defence Australia is a key partner in developing a missile manufacturing and maintenance facility. Maritime security specialist Jennifer Parker acknowledged the progress but questioned if it is fast enough, emphasizing that allies will prioritize their own needs in a crisis.
CSIS's Edel stated that the Iran conflict validates Australia's local production goals, urging that the buildup needs to move at "warp speed" to close stockpile gaps and strengthen allied capacity. Speeding up Australian weapons production is seen as directly feeding into the broader allied inventory, boosting readiness.