Key facts
- Iran may escalate military actions in response to U.S. sanctions.
- China opposes unilateral sanctions and warns of global economic disruption.
- The U.S. has not fully sanctioned Chinese entities involved with Iranian oil.
- Experts believe Iran's strategy is to escalate significantly in response to incremental sanctions.
- High risk to regional energy infrastructure remains despite limited economic gains from sanctions.
The U.S. administration's strategy of applying pressure on Iran through sanctions, without escalating military action, is unlikely to deter Tehran, according to experts. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an expert on Iran's economy and U.S. sanctions, stated that Iran, unable to respond in kind, will likely resort to military actions to make President Trump pay a political cost.
Despite calls to "sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime," the administration has not fully implemented stepped-up sanctions, particularly on Chinese "teapot" refineries that process Iranian crude or Chinese banks working with Iran. China, which purchases 90 percent of Iran's oil, has indicated opposition to unilateral sanctions lacking international legal basis. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that economic warfare "only serve[s] to fuel tensions and lead to risk spillover, which will disrupt the global economic and financial order."