Global temperatures likely to exceed 1.5°C threshold, UN report warns

Key facts

• A UN report forecasts global temperatures to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years.
• The WMO predicts a 47% chance the five-year average from 2024-2028 will surpass this threshold.
• Pacific island nations are particularly vulnerable to climate disasters exacerbated by rising temperatures.
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for urgent, ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit.
• The past 12 months have set a new global temperature record, averaging 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels.

A United Nations report released on Wednesday forecasts global temperatures to cross the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the next few years, potentially devastating Pacific island countries that are susceptible to climate disasters. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Annual to Decadal Update predicts that each year between 2024 and 2028 is likely to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. The report also states an 86% likelihood that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, surpassing 2023, which is currently the warmest year on record. Furthermore, there is a 47% chance that the global temperature averaged over the entire five-year period of 2024-2028 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era, an increase from last year's report. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged leaders to take more ambitious climate action, stating that the battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees will be won or lost in the 2020s. Supporting evidence from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that each of the past 12 months has set a new global temperature record for that time of year, with the last 12 months averaging 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average. WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett warned that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C level will become more frequent and that failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions will result in trillions of dollars in economic costs and millions of lives affected by extreme weather.