Key facts
- The UN Environment Programme has issued a report stating that Earth will exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold in the coming years.
- The report acknowledges that the world must now prepare to navigate a future where the 1.5°C limit is crossed and then corrected.
- Current government policies are projected to push global temperatures to 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, while optimistic scenarios see a peak at 1.8°C.
- Limiting the peak temperature and the duration above 1.5°C is crucial, though this overshoot period is expected to last for many decades.
- Increased extreme weather events, food and water shortages, economic damage, and species extinction are anticipated during the overshoot period.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released a report acknowledging that the world is on track to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit agreed upon in the 2015 Paris climate accord. This marks a strategic shift, as officials now emphasize managing the consequences of exceeding this threshold and developing strategies to eventually bring temperatures back down.
According to the report, Earth is currently at 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels and is expected to cross the 1.5°C mark within the next few years. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, global temperatures are projected to peak around 1.8°C mid-century, while current policies suggest a rise to 2.6°C by 2100. The new strategy involves limiting the peak warming and reducing the time spent above the 1.5°C threshold, a period expected to last for many decades.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stated that the 1.5°C target remains the goal, but the approach must now be from above. Climate scientists emphasize that every tenth of a degree avoided still mitigates damage. The report warns that this period of 'overshoot' will bring increased weather-related disasters, rising sea levels, species extinction, food and water shortages, and economic harm.
Report co-author Richard Betts noted that humanity must adapt to a warmer world, but actions taken now can limit the extent of the overshoot. Climate scientist Andrew Weaver described the report as bleak but urgent, stressing that there is still much that can be done to limit warming. The report also highlights the risk of "tipping points" with irreversible effects, such as the melting of major ice sheets.