India's southwest monsoon, crucial for its agriculture, is experiencing erratic rainfall patterns, with cumulative precipitation below normal. This shortfall is impacting crops, increasing reliance on irrigation, and driving up energy demand for cooling and power generation, potentially weighing on the economy.
Key Numbers
89–92%southwest monsoon rainfall as % of Long Period Average
24%national rainfall deficit for the time of year
6.5%diesel usage growth in August
10%diesel usage growth in July
Who's Involved
Ajay Kumar Chutani
sari shop owner in Karnal, India
Skymet Weather Services
private forecaster
Raghuram Murtugudde
visiting professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
↳ Why This Matters
The erratic monsoon poses a significant risk to India's agricultural output, potentially leading to higher food costs and reduced rural incomes. The increased demand for irrigation and cooling is straining the country's energy resources, necessitating greater reliance on fossil fuels and potentially impacting economic growth.
Key facts
India's southwest monsoon rainfall is 89-92% of the Long Period Average.
Rainfall was nearly 40% below normal in June, followed by heavy downpours in early July.
National rainfall is currently about 24% lower than usual for the time of year.
Farmers are increasing groundwater irrigation due to inadequate rainfall, boosting diesel consumption.
Hot and dry weather is increasing demand for cooling in urban areas, straining electricity supply.
Reduced rainfall is leading to a deficit in hydropower generation, increasing reliance on coal and oil for power.
India's crucial southwest monsoon is exhibiting erratic patterns, with rainfall significantly below normal levels, raising concerns for agriculture and the broader economy. This year's monsoon season has seen a weak start, with June recording the fifth-driest on record and rainfall nearly 40% below normal. This was followed by a sudden deluge in early July, dumping a month's worth of precipitation in a single week in some cities like Mumbai. However, the weather system has since stalled, leading to a break in the rains and leaving national rainfall about 24% lower than usual for this time of year.
The weakening monsoon, influenced by an intensifying El Niño and global warming, is creating a multi-sectoral crisis. For agriculture, which still relies heavily on rainfall for irrigation, the swings between dry spells and intense downpours are disrupting crop sowing. Crops like rice, which are highly water-dependent, face reduced yields if water stress occurs during critical growth stages. Farmers are increasingly turning to groundwater irrigation, leading to a surge in diesel consumption for pumps. August saw the highest ever diesel volumes for the month, with a 6.5% growth, and July also experienced a 10% increase.
Beyond agriculture, the erratic weather is impacting energy demand and supply. Hot and dry conditions are intensifying the need for cooling in urban and semi-urban areas, driving up electricity demand. Simultaneously, reduced rainfall is leading to lower inflows into reservoirs, causing a deficit in hydropower generation. This forces greater reliance on thermal power plants, which are more carbon-intensive, and potentially diesel-driven generators, creating a double burden on India's energy system.
Frequently asked questions
The Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall recorded over a specific period, typically 50 years, used as a benchmark to assess the current monsoon's performance.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India.
Farmers are using more diesel to power irrigation pumps to compensate for inadequate rainfall, and increased economic activity in construction and infrastructure projects also contributes to higher diesel demand.
Low rainfall reduces hydropower generation, forcing greater reliance on thermal power plants. Simultaneously, hot weather increases demand for cooling, putting a double strain on the electricity supply.
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