Key facts
- Philippine MY 2025-26 rice production is expected to decrease.
- El Niño and higher input costs are cited as reasons for the projected decline.
- Imports are anticipated to rise to cover the expected shortfall.
The Philippines' rice production for the marketing year 2025-26 is forecast to decline, primarily due to the adverse effects of El Niño and persistently high fertilizer costs. This projected shortfall is expected to necessitate an increase in rice imports to meet domestic demand. The agricultural sector in the Philippines is particularly vulnerable to weather patterns like El Niño, which typically brings drier conditions, impacting crop yields.