Key facts
- Climate change is impacting Indonesia's coffee production through rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and increased pest risks.
- Arabica coffee, which prefers cooler highland areas, faces stress from rising temperatures.
- Robusta coffee, while more tolerant, is also at risk from extreme weather pattern changes.
- Declining production affects raw material availability, price stability, and quality consistency in the coffee value chain.
- Indonesia's coffee export value increased from $808 million in 2021 to an estimated $1.60 billion in 2025.
- Production volume decreased from approximately 774,000 tons in 2021 to an estimated 700,000 tons in 2025.
- Rising global coffee prices, particularly for Robusta, are driving the increase in export value.
- The United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Malaysia are key export markets for Indonesian coffee.
Indonesia's coffee industry is grappling with the significant impacts of climate change, leading to declining production volumes while export values surge due to high global prices. The nation, the world's fourth-largest coffee producer, is experiencing shifts in harvest patterns, reduced productivity, and altered flavor characteristics as temperatures rise and rainfall becomes erratic.
Arabica coffee, which thrives in cooler highland regions, is particularly vulnerable to increasing temperatures. Robusta coffee, while more tolerant, also faces risks from extreme weather events. These environmental changes disrupt flowering, fruit development, and processing, ultimately affecting the quality and consistency of the beans.
The paradox of rising export value alongside falling production is driven by record-high global coffee prices, especially for Robusta. This trend, however, raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of Indonesia's coffee sector. Key export markets for Indonesian coffee include the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Malaysia.
To combat these challenges, adaptation strategies are being implemented, including agroforestry systems to maintain soil moisture and reduce heat exposure, improving soil health through organic matter and water management, and utilizing production data for better decision-making and supply chain transparency. The global market's increasing focus on sustainability and traceability, exemplified by regulations like the EU Deforestation Regulation, further emphasizes the need for these practices.