COCERAL lowers EU grain output forecast for 2026

The European association of trade in cereals & oilseeds, COCERAL, has issued revised forecasts for the 2026 season, indicating a decline in overall grain production across the EU-27 and the UK. The latest projection places the total grain crop at 279.0 million tonnes, a significant reduction from previous estimates and well below the 307.4 million tonnes harvested in 2025. This downward revision is attributed to adverse weather conditions, including heatwaves and dry spells, which have negatively impacted key crops.

Wheat production, excluding durum, is now estimated at 137.5 million tonnes, down from both earlier forecasts and the 148.7 million tonnes produced in 2025. While some areas in northern France saw adequate crop development despite heatwaves, German and Polish crops were more significantly affected. Barley output is forecast at 57.9 million tonnes, slightly up from a previous estimate but still considerably lower than the 63.3 million tonnes from the prior year.

The most substantial downward revision was made to the corn production forecast, which is now projected at 48.6 million tonnes. This is due to extremely hot and dry weather conditions during pollination in key growing regions, particularly affecting France and Hungary. The French corn crop is expected to drop to 7.6 million tonnes, its lowest level in over two decades. A sharp decrease in EU-wide plantings also contributes to the low corn crop outlook.

Rapeseed output is forecast at 21.3 million tonnes, marginally up from a previous estimate but slightly down from 2025. While yields are expected to return to average levels, this is offset by an increase in plantings, encouraged by attractive farmgate prices.