Key facts
- Global grain production is forecast to fall 2.7% to 2.42 billion tonnes in 2026-27.
- Maize and wheat output are expected to be lower, contributing to the overall decline.
- Global grain consumption is forecast to reach a new peak.
- Global grain stocks are projected to shrink by 4% to 608 million tonnes.
- Global soybean output is expected to reach a record 441 million tonnes in 2026-27.
- The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) is up 20% year-on-year.
The International Grains Council (IGC) anticipates a 2.7% decrease in global grain production for the 2026-27 marketing year, bringing the total to 2.42 billion tonnes. This reduction, primarily driven by lower anticipated maize and wheat harvests, follows a record-breaking season. Despite the anticipated drop in output, global consumption is expected to reach a new peak, leading to a projected 4% decline in carryover stocks to 608 million tonnes.
Soybean production, however, is forecast to hit a record 441 million tonnes in 2026-27, with global utilization also expected to reach a new peak. Global grain trade is projected to decline by 17 million tonnes to 450 million, influenced by smaller wheat and barley shipments to the Near East Asia and North Africa regions. The IGC noted that intensified Russia-Ukraine hostilities are creating uncertainty around Black Sea exports.
Reflecting recent strength in soybean, wheat, and maize markets, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) has risen significantly, climbing 7% since the June report and standing 20% higher year-on-year.