Key facts
- Global wheat flour trade is projected to reach 16 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year, the lowest in four years.
- This decline is attributed to reduced imports by Sudan and Iraq.
- Sudan's imports are expected to fall from 1.4 million tonnes to 400,000 tonnes.
- Iraq's imports are forecast to decrease by 500,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes.
- Afghanistan and Syria are expected to increase their flour imports.
- Turkey's exports are forecast to rise to 4.1 million tonnes.
Global trade in wheat flour is anticipated to fall to its lowest level in four years during the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Trade volumes are forecast at approximately 16 million tonnes, a 3% decrease from the previous year and the second consecutive annual decline.
The primary drivers for this reduction are significantly lower import volumes from Sudan and Iraq. In Sudan, a return to domestic milling operations has shifted demand from imported flour to wheat, causing imports to plummet from 1.4 million tonnes to an estimated 400,000 tonnes. Iraq is also set to substantially reduce its flour imports by 500,000 tonnes, potentially reaching its smallest volume in nearly two decades, attributed to growing domestic milling capacity, supportive government policies, and increased local grain production.
Conversely, import forecasts have been raised for Afghanistan, which may increase purchases to 3.8 million tonnes, and Syria, which is expected to import a record 1 million tonnes due to domestic milling challenges. Demand is also projected to grow in parts of Africa and Latin America. On the export side, Egypt's shipments are forecast to fall to 600,000 tonnes, while Turkey is expected to increase exports to 4.1 million tonnes, though still below recent averages. The IGC projects a modest recovery in global flour trade to 16.2 million tonnes for the 2026/27 season, contingent on import demand, government policies, and security conditions in key importing countries.