Key facts
- FEFAC estimates the EU could face a soybean meal supply gap of at least 5 million tons in 2026/2027.
- The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to enter into force on December 30, 2026.
- The additional cost of sourcing soy compliant with the EUDR could reach €1.05 billion.
- The total estimated impact on soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower meal supplies could reach €1.4 billion.
- FEFAC president Nicolas Coudry-Mesny described the situation as worrying.
- FEFAC is calling for simplified implementation of the EUDR for soy and a suspension of its application to palm kernel expeller.
The European Feed Manufacturers’ Federation (FEFAC) has issued a stark warning regarding potential disruptions to the EU's animal feed supply chain in 2027, driven by a confluence of factors including severe drought, ongoing trade disruptions, and the impending implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
FEFAC estimates that the EU could face a soybean meal supply gap of at least 5 million tons, representing approximately 20% of the EU's total soybean meal consumption, for the 2026/2027 marketing year. This shortfall is attributed to the combined pressures of drought conditions, disruptions in trade routes such as the Black Sea, and the sourcing constraints imposed by the EUDR, which mandates that soy products must not be linked to deforestation.
The financial implications for the EU feed sector are also significant. FEFAC projects that the additional cost of sourcing soy compliant with the EUDR could amount to €1.05 billion. When considering alternative high-protein ingredients like rapeseed and sunflower meal, which are linked to soybean meal prices, the total estimated impact on supplies to the EU feed and livestock sector could rise to around €1.4 billion. This could translate into direct cost increases of approximately €40 per ton of pig meat and €15 per ton of poultry meat, potentially undermining the competitiveness of the EU livestock sector.
FEFAC president Nicolas Coudry-Mesny expressed concern, noting that the regulation's entry into force on December 30, 2026, is already impacting soy purchasing decisions. The federation is advocating for a simplified implementation of the EUDR for soy and a temporary suspension of its application to palm kernel expeller to prevent an economically unviable situation for livestock farmers in early 2027.