Key facts
- France's corn production is expected to fall by around 50% year-on-year to less than 7 million tons in MY 2026/27.
- The EU's total corn production forecast was reduced by 4% to 48.2 million tons.
- Yields in France are anticipated to fall below 6.5 t/ha, about 30% below the five-year average.
- EU corn imports are forecast to rise 22% to 23.2 million tons in 2026/27.
- EU corn consumption is projected to decrease to 70.7 million tons, the lowest since 2012/13.
France, the European Union's largest corn producer, is facing its smallest corn harvest in 50 years for the 2026/27 marketing year due to severe drought and heatwaves. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA (FAS USDA) forecasts that the country's corn production will decline by approximately 50% year-on-year to under 7 million tons. This severe reduction is attributed to five consecutive heatwaves and drought conditions that began in May, impacting even irrigated corn fields due to restrictions. Yields are expected to drop to below 6.5 tons per hectare, a 30% decrease from the five-year average.
The overall EU corn production forecast has been cut by 4% from July estimates to 48.2 million tons, potentially marking the smallest crop of the 21st century and a 15% decrease from the previous season. Consequently, EU corn imports are projected to increase by 22% to 23.2 million tons in 2026/27, reaching their highest level since 2018/19. The EU may increase purchases from the US and Brazil as Ukrainian supplies remain constrained. Meanwhile, EU corn consumption is forecast to fall to 70.7 million tons, the lowest since 2012/13, with alternative feed grains potentially covering some of the shortfall.