Key facts
- Argentina's corn exports are projected to reach a record 10 million metric tons in August and September.
- The estimated harvest for the 2025/26 season is 71.7 million tons, a nearly 20% increase from the previous record.
- North African countries, particularly Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria, are leading the surge in demand for Argentine corn.
- Disruptions to Ukrainian exports due to Russian strikes and European crop damage from heat waves are reshaping global trade.
- Brazil's reduced corn exports, driven by its ethanol industry, are creating better commercial opportunities for Argentina.
Argentina's corn exports are poised for a record performance in August and September, with an estimated 10 million metric tons expected to be shipped. This surge is attributed to a robust harvest, estimated at 71.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season, and strong global demand. Buyers are actively seeking alternatives to Ukrainian corn, whose supply has been severely disrupted by the ongoing war and Russian attacks on export infrastructure. Additionally, extreme heat and drought across Europe have further constrained Ukrainian shipments through the Danube River, making Argentine corn highly competitive in price and volume.
North African countries, traditionally reliant on Ukrainian grain, are leading the increased demand for Argentine corn. Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria have all seen significant jumps in their imports of Argentine corn in the first seven months of 2026. This shift in trade dynamics is further amplified by reduced export volumes from Brazil, the world's second-largest corn exporter. Brazil's domestic market, particularly its booming ethanol industry, is consuming a larger portion of its corn production, creating more commercial opportunities for Argentine exporters.
Analysts note that the current geopolitical and climatic conditions have made Ukraine's overseas markets vulnerable, with much of its production likely to be diverted to European markets like France, which have also suffered from heat-related yield reductions. This complex interplay of factors is reshaping global agricultural trade flows, benefiting Argentina's export capabilities.
Discussion