Key facts
- Brazil's 2025/26 grain crop is estimated at 360.8 million tonnes, up 2.4% from the previous season.
- Soybean production is forecast at 180.5 million tonnes, a 5.2% increase.
- Corn production is expected to reach 143 million tonnes, up 1.3% from the previous season.
- Cotton production is projected at 4.1 million tonnes of lint.
- Wheat production is estimated to fall 26.2% to 5.8 million tonnes.
- The total area for grain cultivation is projected at 83.5 million hectares.
Brazil's Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) has raised its forecast for the 2025/26 grain crop, projecting a total output of 360.8 million tonnes. This figure represents a 2.4% increase, or 8.5 million tonnes, compared to the 2024/25 season, and reaffirms expectations for record production in soybeans, corn, cotton, and sorghum.
The increased output is attributed to a larger area dedicated to grain cultivation, estimated at 83.5 million hectares, while national productivity is expected to remain stable at 4,311 kilograms per hectare. The report, released on August 13, 2026, highlights favorable weather conditions in key producing regions for soybeans and corn.
Soybean production is now forecast at 180.5 million tonnes, a 5.2% rise from the previous season, with adjustments made due to the performance of the second crop in Tocantins state. Corn production is estimated at 143 million tonnes, up 1.3% from the prior season, primarily driven by growth in the first crop. Cotton production is expected to reach 4.1 million tonnes of lint.
However, concerns remain for wheat production, with Conab estimating a 26.2% decline to 5.8 million tonnes, due to a 20.4% reduction in planted acreage and potential impacts from heavy rainfall in the South region, particularly Rio Grande do Sul, which could affect quality. Analysts attribute the decline in wheat acreage partly to rising input costs, such as urea, influenced by global events.
Bean production is projected to decrease by 3.2% to 3 million tonnes, a level aligned with domestic consumption and allowing for exports. Rice production is estimated at 11.1 million tonnes, down 13% from the previous season due to reduced planted area. Sorghum continues to grow in importance, with a projected 20.7% increase in production.