Key facts
- Three of Russia's six largest diesel refineries are shut or at 25% capacity due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
- Kirishi refinery is offline; Volgograd and NORSI are operating at 25% capacity.
- These six refineries account for about half of Russia's diesel production.
- Diesel exports fell below 1 million metric tons in June, down from 2.5 million tons a year prior.
- U.S. diesel prices crossed $6 per gallon last week.
- Russia's crude output forecast for 2026 was cut to 8.7 million bpd.
Ukrainian drone attacks have significantly disrupted Russia's diesel production capabilities, with three of the country's six largest refineries now operating at severely reduced capacity or completely offline. These facilities are critical to both domestic supply and global fuel markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that Russian refineries have been targeted by drones with increasing regularity, estimating an average of one successful strike every three days in the first eight months of 2026.
In response to these disruptions and to ensure domestic supply, Russia has already implemented restrictions on its exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Trader estimates cited by Reuters indicate that diesel exports fell below 1 million metric tons in June, a substantial decrease from the approximately 2.5 million tons shipped monthly a year prior. This reduction in Russian supply is occurring in a global diesel market already facing shortages, exacerbated by issues in the Middle East. Consequently, U.S. diesel prices have surged, crossing $6 per gallon last week, and refining margins have widened as product inventories decline.
Beyond refining, Russia's overall crude production is also facing challenges. The IEA recently revised down its forecast for Russian crude output to 8.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, following a drop to 8.36 million bpd in August, which was 940,000 bpd lower than January's output.