Key facts
- Diesel prices have reached record highs due to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.
- The nationwide average diesel price in the U.S. has soared to $6.23 per gallon.
- U.S. diesel prices averaged around $3.60 per gallon at the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in late February.
- Ukraine's drone strikes have intensified against Russian oil refineries, with twelve major refineries hit in August alone.
- Exports from the Persian Gulf fell by 152 million barrels between March and August due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
- Russian exports of refined products have decreased by a third, equivalent to around 4% of the world's seaborne diesel and gasoil trade.
U.S. diesel prices have surged to record highs, with the nationwide average reaching $6.23 per gallon, a significant increase from around $3.60 in late February. This surge is attributed to a complex interplay of global conflicts and supply chain disruptions.
President Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil refineries were the primary cause of the price hikes, urging Ukraine to cease such attacks. However, analysts largely dispute this theory. Alan Riley, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, stated that the conflict involving Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to refining capacity in the Gulf are the main drivers of the global diesel price spike.
While Ukraine's campaign against Russian refineries has been ongoing since August 2025, with major facilities like the Ryazan Oil Refinery being repeatedly targeted, its impact on global prices is considered secondary to the Middle East conflict. A study by Ukraine's KSE Institute indicated that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran led to a larger drop in global diesel and gasoil supplies, with 152 million barrels of exports lost from the Persian Gulf between March and August, compared to a 68 million-barrel drop from Russia.
Russian seaborne product exports have declined by 21% between January and July, with diesel accounting for the majority of this decrease. This reduction is equivalent to about 4% of the world's seaborne diesel and gasoil trade. Despite being a major exporter, Russia has recently begun importing fuel, a notable shift in its energy market position.