Key facts
- Venezuela's crude production could reach 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030, Rystad Energy models.
- Chevron plans to invest over $7 billion in Venezuela over five years.
- NABEP's $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed near-term capital.
- Venezuela had just two active drilling rigs as of August, against a target of around 93 by 2028.
- NABEP's involvement in Petrozamora operations saw production rise from 90,000 bpd to nearly 200,000 bpd.
Venezuela's upstream oil sector is experiencing renewed international interest, with established majors expanding and new operators entering under revised contractual frameworks. Rystad Energy models that if capital deployment, rig availability, and oilfield services scale adequately, Venezuelan crude production could reach approximately 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030.
Chevron has expanded its portfolio by adding Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A, outlining over $7 billion in investment over five years. Eni has taken exclusive operatorship of Junin 5 under a new 25-year contract, while Repsol has regained control at Petroquiriquire and Shell has re-entered through redevelopment agreements for Carito and Pirital. New entrants include GeoPark, Hunt Oil, and Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy, with North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) significantly increasing its presence across 17 areas.
Rystad Energy favors investment programs tied to established operators and defined assets. NABEP's stated $100 billion figure is a long-term requirement, not committed capital, and lacks a disclosed financing structure. A more immediate operational constraint is the low number of active drilling rigs; Baker Hughes reported only two in Venezuela as of August, against a Hydrocarbons Ministry target of around 93 by 2028. SLB has approximately 15 rigs ready for reactivation within a year. Rystad estimates that around 50 rigs would be needed by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support the projected production levels.
Near-term production growth is expected to be driven by brownfield activities such as field rehabilitation and well reactivations. NABEP's involvement in former Russian-linked Petrozamora operations has already shown significant results, with production increasing from about 90,000 bpd at the end of 2024 to nearly 200,000 bpd currently. Greenfield-led growth is anticipated in the 2030s, supported by projects like Chevron's Ayacucho 8 and Eni's Junin 5. In an upside scenario, Rystad projects Venezuelan crude production could reach 2.58 million bpd by 2035.
Further potential upside exists with companies like Continental Resources signing preliminary agreements, ExxonMobil in discussions for a return, and TotalEnergies signing an MoU. Service providers such as Halliburton have also entered into agreements for oil and gas development opportunities. However, the pace of development remains contingent on actual capital deployment and Venezuela's capacity to rebuild its drilling, services, and infrastructure.