Key facts
- Global biofuels production may surge 70% by 2030 due to higher blending mandates.
- The U.S. EPA set record renewable fuel volume mandates for 2026 and 2027.
- Brazil increased its mandatory ethanol content in gasoline to 32% and banned biodiesel imports.
- Indonesia launched its mandatory B50 biodiesel program to reduce diesel imports.
- The expansion of biofuel feedstocks could double land area required by 2030, adding 36 million hectares.
- Increased biofuel use may threaten global food security by diverting resources from food crops.
Global biofuels production is expected to rise by nearly 70% by 2030, driven by increased blending mandates in key countries like the U.S., EU, Brazil, India, and Indonesia, according to a study by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council. This surge is a response to the energy crisis exacerbated by the Middle East conflict, making biofuels more cost-competitive against rising oil and gasoline prices.
In the U.S., the EPA has set the highest renewable fuel volume mandates in the program's history for 2026 and 2027, with biomass-based diesel requirements increasing significantly. The agency also issued an emergency waiver for E15 gasoline sales to lower prices and boost supply. Brazil has rapidly increased its mandatory ethanol blend to 32% and banned biodiesel imports, aiming to replace gasoline imports with domestic ethanol production. Indonesia has implemented a mandatory 50% palm-oil-based biodiesel blend to curb diesel imports and achieve energy self-sufficiency.
However, experts warn that this expansion comes at a significant cost. The study estimates that the increased demand for biofuel feedstocks could double the land area required globally by 2030, consuming an additional 36 million hectares. This diversion of land and resources from food crops like corn, rice, and soybeans could undermine global food security. The authors caution that prioritizing short-term energy security may lead to increased food insecurity, with extreme weather events posing further risks to food prices. The rapid increase in biofuel mandates also raises concerns that demand for feedstocks may outpace environmental safeguards and certification systems.
Separately, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) warned that the shipping sector alone could triple demand for vegetable oil biofuels by 2035, potentially tripling their prices and exacerbating food insecurity for millions worldwide.