Key facts
- Brent crude for November delivery fell 1.5% to $103.72 per barrel.
- WTI crude for October delivery declined 2.2% to $90.62 per barrel.
- Middle Eastern crude exports reached 15.5 million barrels per day in September.
- Saudi Arabia's crude exports rose to approximately 5.4 million bpd in September.
- Standard Chartered increased its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $92.00/bbl.
- Standard Chartered increased its 2027 Brent crude forecast to $89.50/bbl.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as Middle Eastern producers increased exports, but analysts at Standard Chartered have raised their long-term price forecasts, citing a deteriorating security environment in the region and a global shift towards energy resilience. Brent crude for November delivery dropped 1.5% to $103.72 a barrel, while WTI crude for October delivery decreased 2.2% to $90.62 a barrel.
Crude exports from the Middle East reached 15.5 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the conflict began seven months ago, with Saudi Arabia leading the recovery by more than doubling its exports to approximately 5.4 million bpd. This increase followed the partial restoration of the damaged East-West pipeline.
Standard Chartered now forecasts Brent crude to average $92.00 a barrel in 2026, up from $85.50, and $89.50 a barrel in 2027, up from $77.50. The firm's WTI crude forecasts were also raised to $86.00 a barrel for 2026 (from $80.25) and $89.50 a barrel for 2027 (from $77.50).
The analysts noted that the global energy market faces a more persistent deterioration in Middle East security, with little prospect of a return to pre-conflict conditions. They expect a gradual de-escalation process, with periodic tensions likely to maintain a price premium. The shift from prioritizing efficiency to resilience in energy systems, involving larger inventories and diversified suppliers, is expected to support higher long-term oil prices.
In product markets, diesel prices have reached an all-time high, prompting consideration of interventions by the Trump administration, including potential restrictions on exports. However, officials warn this could tighten gasoline and jet fuel supply and harm refining economics. The EU is also urging member states to sustain stronger gas injections and reduce demand amid supply risks, though European natural gas futures fell to a one-month low on weaker Chinese LNG demand.