Key facts
- Geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and US-Iran tensions are exposing weaknesses in global energy and economic systems.
- Energy security is now seen as inseparable from financial, transportation, military, and strategic autonomy.
- The Strait of Hormuz disruption due to the US-Iran conflict affected approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and LNG flows.
- Europe has reduced dependence on Russian pipeline gas, increasing reliance on U.S. LNG, which accounted for 53% of EU LNG imports in 2025.
- China is diversifying energy relationships with Russia and Central Asia while remaining exposed to Middle Eastern energy flows and maritime chokepoints.
- Persian Gulf states, despite vast energy resources, depend heavily on external security and military technologies, primarily from the U.S.
The world is entering a new era of energy security, marked by geopolitical conflicts and a reassessment of global supply chains. The Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-Iran tensions have highlighted vulnerabilities in the global energy and economic system, demonstrating that energy security is intrinsically linked to financial, transportation, military, and strategic autonomy.
The disruption of Russian pipeline gas to Europe due to the war in Ukraine has been a significant event. Europe's reliance on Russian gas, which accounted for over 40% of its demand by 2018-21, led to an energy crisis after the 2022 invasion. While Europe has reduced this direct dependence, it has largely replaced it with a greater reliance on global LNG markets, particularly from the U.S., which supplied 53% of EU LNG imports in 2025. This shift represents diversification but still maintains an external dependency.
Similarly, the U.S.-Iran conflict has exposed the fragility of global oil and LNG flows concentrated around strategic maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The International Energy Agency noted that the disruption through the Strait of Hormuz affected approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products, marking it as the largest oil-supply disruption in its history.
China, while reducing its direct dependence on U.S. energy, remains highly exposed to Middle Eastern energy flows and maritime chokepoints influenced by U.S. policies. The majority of crude oil and condensate passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea being major recipients. This creates a paradox where reducing reliance on one supplier does not eliminate vulnerability to the broader global energy system.
Middle Eastern countries, despite possessing significant oil and gas resources, face their own contradictions. Their energy wealth does not automatically translate to complete strategic independence, as they remain heavily reliant on external security and military relationships, particularly with the United States. The movement of oil and gas through pipelines, terminals, and maritime routes remains vulnerable to disruption, underscoring that reserves alone cannot guarantee energy security.