Key facts
- Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts due to prolonged disruption to Gulf exports.
- Brent crude is forecast to average $89.05 a barrel in 2026, and U.S. crude is forecast to average $83.90 a barrel.
- Analysts believe a full restoration of exports through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the near term.
- Chinese crude inventories are seen as a key market uncertainty, with expected strengthening of Chinese buying.
- Supply risks, rather than demand weakness, are viewed as the primary driver of prices through 2026.
- The market is expected to return to surplus in 2027 as shipping conditions improve and production recovers.
Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts, with benchmark Brent crude expected to average nearly $90 a barrel, as disruptions to Gulf exports are seen as outweighing concerns over demand growth. A September survey of 30 economists and analysts projected Brent crude would average $89.05 a barrel in 2026, and U.S. crude $83.90 a barrel. Forecasts for average Brent prices ranged from $77.27 to $97.60.
Several analysts indicated that the market is increasingly convinced that a full restoration of exports through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the near term, leaving inventories to absorb much of the supply shortfall. "We are not betting on a resolution to the conflict within the next three to six months," said Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank. "Significant upside risks to our forecasts exist if conflict continues to escalate instead of dialling down."
HSBC's base-case scenario assumes only gradual improvements in shipping conditions and a "structurally impaired" Hormuz, with liquids flows recovering slowly from current levels and remaining far below the roughly 19-20 million barrels per day that passed through the strait before the conflict. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including "dark exports" where ships turn off their transponders, have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, doubling in September, according to a note from the firm.
Analysts identified Chinese inventories as a significant uncertainty. The world's largest crude importer has drawn on substantial stockpiles accumulated before the conflict, reducing its need to compete for cargoes. However, this trend is reversing as Chinese imports rose to nearly 9 million bpd in August, though still below historical norms. "Chinese inventories are currently the main unknown in the equation, as they turned out to be much larger than estimated at the start of the conflict. However, they are finite and cannot cover the whole winter, so we expect Chinese buying to strengthen from current levels," said Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia.
Despite growing concerns about the global economy, most analysts view supply risks rather than demand weakness as the primary driver of prices through 2026. "Slower global economic growth and weaker manufacturing activity are still restraining demand growth. These factors should prevent prices from approaching the highs reached immediately after the outbreak of the conflict, even as geopolitical tensions stay elevated," said analysts at EIU. They also expect inventories to decline substantially in 2026 as consuming countries draw down emergency and commercial stockpiles to offset lower Gulf exports. Most analysts anticipate the market will move back into surplus during 2027 as shipping conditions improve, Gulf production gradually recovers, and non-OPEC supply continues to expand.