Key facts
- JP Morgan estimates Middle East oil exports at 17.5 million barrels daily in September, 98% of pre-war levels.
- JP Morgan estimates fuel exports at 3 million barrels daily, 58% of pre-war levels.
- Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil outflows at 23.3 million barrels daily.
- Oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, according to JP Morgan.
- TotalEnergies' calculations showed average daily exports via Hormuz of 10 million barrels.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels, with differing estimates from major banks highlighting the complexities of tracking flows amid geopolitical tensions. JP Morgan's commodity analysts reported that September daily oil flows averaged 17.5 million barrels, representing 98% of pre-war levels, while fuel exports reached 3 million barrels daily, or 58% of pre-war averages. The bank noted that oil export arteries in the region are flowing again, calling it a "remarkable recovery for a region still at war."
Earlier estimates from Kpler for September saw Middle East oil flows between 12.8 million and 13.2 million barrels daily. JP Morgan also stated that oil exports specifically via the Strait of Hormuz had returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia. However, the analysts cautioned that increased crossings do not necessarily indicate improved safety, but rather the industry's growing ability to operate under sustained risk.
Goldman Sachs presented a more optimistic view, estimating oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at 23.3 million barrels daily, comparable to projected 2025 daily averages. The bank observed a divergence between declining Iranian exports and increasing exports from other Persian Gulf producers, with Saudi estimated exports more than doubling in September and surpassing their 2025 average.
Other assessments of Hormuz oil flows are less optimistic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated Persian Gulf oil exports at 17 million barrels daily, but qualified this by saying it was "sometimes." The chief executive of TotalEnergies indicated that the company's calculations showed average daily exports via Hormuz of 10 million barrels.