Key facts
- Brent crude futures traded around $97 a barrel on Thursday.
- Persian Gulf oil exports reached 23.3 million barrels a day last week, according to Goldman Sachs.
- Goldman Sachs estimates crude exports from the Persian Gulf have climbed to 108% of their 2025 average.
- Iranian exports fell to below 20% of their 2025 average.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude to moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end.
Oil prices remain elevated despite a significant recovery in Persian Gulf oil exports, as traders continue to price in the risk of renewed disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crude futures traded around $97 a barrel on Thursday, down from peaks reached during heightened tensions.
Goldman Sachs estimates that Persian Gulf oil exports reached 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, roughly matching their 2025 average. This rebound was driven by higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers, even amidst incidents like a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Houthi blockades.
Saudi Arabia spearheaded the export recovery, with shipments rising above their 2025 average. However, Iranian exports have fallen to below 20% of their 2025 average. The recovery has been concentrated in crude oil, with crude exports from the Persian Gulf climbing to 108% of their 2025 average, while refined fuel exports remain at about half their normal levels due to refinery outages and increased transport risks.
Goldman Sachs attributes the sustained high oil prices to ongoing geopolitical risks and unusually low global oil inventories, which incentivize buyers to rebuild stockpiles. The bank maintains its forecast for Brent crude to moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027, but analysts expressed concern about potential escalation that could damage more energy infrastructure and drive prices higher.