Key facts
- Middle East crude oil exports exceeded pre-war levels on four days in the final week of September.
- Crude exports ranged between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day.
- Average exports were 18 million bpd before the US-Israeli war with Iran.
- The 7-day moving average for crude exports was 18.5 million bpd on October 1.
- At least seven tanker attacks have been reported in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
- The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile on October 1.
Crude oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels in four days of the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1.
These figures include transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The overall average for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids was 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz in September reached their highest monthly level since February.
Despite the increase in exports, the region faces security challenges. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents of attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile while operating in the strait, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were reported safe and evacuated. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has also reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Marisks noted that merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat." The firm suggested that recent incidents may not be deliberate targeting of specific vessels, but rather a result of Iranian forces launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area where weapons could acquire available radar signatures.