Key facts
- Middle East crude oil exports in September reached 92% of pre-war levels.
- About 40% of regional oil exports in September bypassed the Strait of Hormuz via pipelines.
- US military assistance to vessels in the Strait of Hormuz increased by a third in September.
- Ship-to-ship transfers accounted for over 70% of crude oil passing through the strait in August.
- Oil exports from Iran have fallen to near zero due to a US blockade.
Middle East crude oil exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels, with daily flows reaching 92% of the pre-war baseline in the final week of September, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler. This recovery occurs despite ongoing risks and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade.
Analysts attribute the rebound to several factors. Approximately 40% of the region's oil exports in September bypassed the Strait of Hormuz, utilizing overland pipelines to ports on the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, a significant increase from 17% before the conflict. The US military has also intensified its support for vessels transiting the strait, with a one-third increase in assisted ships in September compared to August, primarily through air support and threat interception.
Furthermore, ship-to-ship transfers have become a more prevalent method, with over 70% of crude oil passing through the strait in August being transferred to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman. Kpler data indicates an average of over four million barrels of oil per day were transferred this way in the week to September 30. Despite these measures, overall daily flow through the strait averaged 12 million barrels, down from a pre-war baseline of 17 million.
However, the sustainability of these measures is questioned by some experts due to the risk of escalating Iranian attacks. September saw the highest number of successful Iranian attacks on commercial shipping since March. Oil exports from Iran have fallen to near zero following the reimposition of a US naval blockade in July, down from 1.7 million barrels a day before the war. Meanwhile, exports of processed oil products and liquified natural gas remain well below pre-conflict volumes.