Key facts
- Iran threatened to attack regional energy infrastructure if its security is not guaranteed.
- 21 LNG cargoes exited the Strait of Hormuz in September, the highest monthly number since the Iran war began.
- LNG shipments through Hormuz remain well below pre-war levels.
- Tankers are increasingly using 'dark transits' with AIS transponders switched off.
- September gas prices in Asia and Europe were the highest since the 2022-2023 energy crisis due to choked LNG flows.
Iran has threatened to attack regional energy infrastructure if its security is not guaranteed, amid a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data compiled by Reuters showed that an estimated 21 LNG cargoes exited the Strait of Hormuz in September, the highest monthly number since the Iran war began, though still well below pre-war levels.
Shipment analytics firm Kpler estimated that 21 cargoes transited the chokepoint last month, which previously handled one-fifth of global LNG supply. Three Qatari LNG cargoes from Ras Laffan also reappeared outside the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to vessel-tracking data by LSEG and Kpler. In pre-war times, three LNG cargoes per day regularly exited the Strait.
Most LNG carriers are traveling in dark mode through Hormuz, making tracking more difficult and complicating estimates about flows and global supply balances. While Qatari and UAE cargoes have transited the Strait in recent weeks, volumes are too low to significantly impact the global LNG balance. Even as crude oil cargoes have been pushing through the Strait, LNG cargoes have struggled to transit as the gas is trickier to reload in ship-to-ship transfers than oil.
The choked LNG flows from the Middle East in the past six months sent September gas prices in Asia and Europe to their highest levels since the 2022-2023 energy crisis, as buyers compete for available supply that does not need to move through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Asia and Europe by another month through the end of November, as LNG cargo traffic through the Strait remains largely blocked amid the protracted U.S.-Iran stalemate.
Concerns are growing that severely reduced LNG flows from the Middle East would complicate winter gas supply for Europe and Asia, especially if winters are colder than usual.