Key facts
- Europe faces a worsening diesel shortage due to China's export suspension and record-low September imports.
- President Trump threatened a U.S. diesel export ban on Germany and France if they don't release stored fuel.
- Diesel imports into Europe last month were 600,000 barrels daily lower than in September 2025.
- European diesel prices have risen 40% since the start of the year.
- Europe has lost a third of its refining capacity since 2009 due to emissions regulations.
- Germany and France hold about 35% of the EU's strategic diesel reserves.
Europe is facing an increasingly dire diesel shortage, with prices soaring and supply options dwindling. China's decision this week to suspend all fuel exports to prioritize its domestic market, coupled with a significant drop in diesel imports into Europe, is intensifying the crisis.
Diesel is a critical fuel for economies, powering heavy machinery, agriculture, and freight transport. Import-dependent nations like those in Europe are particularly vulnerable to supply shocks. According to Euronews, diesel prices in the European Union have risen by 40% since the start of the year, while gasoline prices have increased by 29%.
Adding to the pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that Germany and France release 120 million barrels of diesel from their strategic reserves or face a U.S. export ban. Vortexa reported that diesel imports into Europe last month reached the lowest September total on record, with monthly imports at 1 million barrels daily, a substantial decrease from previous years. An analyst from Vortexa warned that October is also likely to see weak arrivals.
Europe's domestic production has also been hampered. Refinery runs in September were down 600,000 barrels daily from August due to delayed maintenance, which, paradoxically, has already led to some unplanned outages. This reduced refining capacity, combined with a loss of one-third of the bloc's refineries since 2009 due to emissions regulations, has made Europe more reliant on imports.
Analysts note that Europe's vehicle fleet has historically been more diesel-heavy than regions like the U.S. due to policy incentives, leading to a structural shortage of diesel and a surplus of gasoline. The situation is compounded by sanctions on Russia and Russia's own export ban, leaving the U.S. as a crucial, but potentially unavailable, supplier.