Key facts
- OPEC+ has agreed in principle to keep oil production targets steady for November.
- Gulf OPEC+ producers are pumping 60-80% of normal export levels.
- Actual production is roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels in February.
- OPEC+ still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place.
OPEC+ nations have reached an agreement in principle to maintain their current oil production targets for November, according to three sources close to the matter. The decision comes ahead of the group's official meeting on Sunday.
Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below their output targets due to continuing export disruptions stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Exports have fluctuated at 60-80% of normal levels in recent months.
The conflict has also delayed the group's output capacity review, which is crucial for determining members' 2027 output quotas, as it has introduced uncertainty into estimates of future production potential.
While OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026, most of these increases have remained on paper due to the Middle East conflict. In August, the seven core OPEC+ members pumped 25 million barrels per day, an increase of 630,000 bpd from July, but still approximately 5 million bpd below prewar levels seen in February, according to OPEC data.
The group still has about 2 million bpd of output cuts in place for most members. A capacity review is needed to decide how to distribute any increases, and changes to output are unlikely before 2027, sources indicated.
The seven core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—are scheduled to meet at 1100 GMT on Sunday. A separate Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which does not decide policy, will also convene on Sunday to review the market.