Key facts
- The US has threatened France and Germany with a diesel export ban if they do not release emergency diesel stocks.
- European diesel prices have more than doubled since the start of the year.
- The EU relies on the US for about 32% of its extra-EU diesel imports this year.
- A US ban could accelerate global product stock drawdowns and increase competition for remaining barrels.
- US retail diesel prices reached an all-time high of $6.51 per gallon on September 21.
The Trump administration has informed Germany and France that they must reduce their emergency diesel stockpiles to help stabilize global fuel prices, or risk facing a ban on US diesel exports. This directive comes amid a tight global diesel market, with Europe particularly dependent on US supplies following disruptions from the war with Iran and Russia's own export restrictions.
European diesel prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, and were approximately 38% higher year-on-year in mid-September. Analysts warn that a US export ban would exacerbate this situation by removing a crucial supply source, forcing European nations to bid aggressively for limited replacement cargoes. The EU has increased its reliance on US diesel, with the US supplying about 180,000 barrels a day, or 32%, of the bloc's extra-EU diesel imports this year, up from 17% in 2025. In North-West Europe, US supplies account for about 57% of imports from outside the region.
France, which imports about 63,000 b/d of US diesel (36% of its imports), is considered particularly vulnerable due to refinery closures. President Emmanuel Macron has described a potential US ban as "catastrophic" and has urged the European Commission to relax fuel specifications and coordinate a release of emergency oil reserves. The UK also faces significant exposure, importing around 50,000 b/d from the US (26% of its imports).
Wood Mackenzie analysis suggests that a US export ban would lead to rapid stock drawdowns globally, filling US inventories within about a month and forcing US refiners to cut crude runs by over 2 million bpd. This could shift the cost burden to gasoline consumers in the US, as the policy designed to lower diesel prices might inadvertently drive up gasoline prices. China is seen as the only country with sufficient spare refining capacity to potentially cover the loss of US refinery throughputs, but its willingness to do so is uncertain.