Key facts
- Detroit automakers' combined market share may fall to 36% in Q3.
- Asian brands are expected to hold over 50% of US new vehicle sales in Q3.
- Gasoline prices averaged $4.43/gallon in September, up from $3.20 a year prior.
- Toyota sales expected up 2.2% year-on-year in Q3.
- Hyundai Motor Group poised to outsell Ford in US Q3 sales.
- New vehicle transaction prices rose 1.9% to $50,089 in August.
Detroit automakers are anticipated to cede market share to Asian rivals in the third quarter, driven by elevated gasoline prices. Industry research firm Cox Automotive forecasts that General Motors, Ford Motor, and Stellantis will see their combined US market share fall to approximately 36%. Hybrid-focused Asian brands, such as Toyota and Honda, are expected to capture more than half of new vehicle sales during the period. Gasoline prices climbed to a national average of $4.43 per gallon in September, a significant increase from $3.20 a year prior. Toyota Motor Corporation's overall third-quarter sales are projected to rise by 2.2% year-on-year. General Motors' total quarterly sales are estimated to decline by 5.5% year-on-year. Hyundai Motor Group is positioned to potentially overtake Ford in quarterly US sales for the first time, with Cox forecasting 511,421 units sold, versus Ford's 504,172 units. Stellantis' quarterly sales are estimated to have decreased by about 1%, reaching 317,330 units. Affordability remains a challenge for consumers due to higher new vehicle prices and reduced trade-in values, according to JD Power. The average transaction price for a new vehicle increased by 1.9% to $50,089 in August compared to the previous year. Cox estimates that total US vehicle sales for the quarter will be around 4.1 million units, a 1% decrease from the same period last year.