Key facts
- Detroit automakers' combined market share may fall to 36% in Q3.
- Asian brands are expected to hold over 50% of US new vehicle sales in Q3.
- Gasoline prices averaged $4.43/gallon in September, up from $3.20 a year prior.
- Toyota sales expected up 2.2% year-on-year in Q3.
- Hyundai Motor Group poised to outsell Ford in US Q3 sales.
- New vehicle transaction prices rose 1.9% to $50,089 in August.
The Detroit Three automakers are anticipated to cede market share to their Asian counterparts in the third quarter of the year, driven by elevated gasoline prices linked to the Iran war. Experts predict that General Motors, Ford Motor, and Stellantis will see their combined US market share fall to approximately 36%.
Industry research firm Cox Automotive forecasts that hybrid-focused Asian brands, such as Toyota and Honda, will capture more than half of the new vehicle sales during the period. This shift is attributed to consumers seeking more fuel-efficient options as gasoline prices climbed to a national average of $4.43 per gallon in September, a significant increase from $3.20 a year prior.
Toyota Motor Corporation is expected to be a primary beneficiary of this trend, with its overall third-quarter sales projected to rise by 2.2% compared to the previous year. While General Motors is expected to maintain its leading position in the US market, Cox estimates its total quarterly sales will decline by 5.2% year-on-year.
Hyundai Motor Group is also positioned to potentially overtake Ford in quarterly US sales for the first time, with Cox forecasting 511,421 units sold, versus Ford's 504,172 units. Stellantis' quarterly sales are estimated to have experienced a slight decrease of about 1%, reaching 317,330 units.
Despite a decrease in borrowing costs, affordability remains a challenge for many consumers due to higher new vehicle prices and reduced trade-in values, according to research firm JD Power. The average transaction price for a new vehicle increased by 1.9% to $50,089 in August compared to the previous year, as reported by Cox. Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmunds, noted that higher-income buyers are currently driving sales, while budget-conscious consumers are extending the lifespan of their older vehicles.
Cox estimates that total US vehicle sales for the quarter will be around 4.1 million units, representing a 1% decrease from the same period last year.