Key facts
- Nigeria's food security outlook is threatened by reduced cultivation, insecurity, high input costs, and climate variability.
- USDA projects 2026/27 rice production at 8.3 million tonnes, down 6% from 2025/26.
- Maize production is forecast at 10.9 million tonnes in 2026/27, a 5% decrease.
- Wheat production is projected at 140,000 tonnes in 2026/27, with imports expected to rise.
- Insecurity and high input costs are driving crisis-level food security outcomes in northern Nigeria.
- Kaduna State recovered over 500,000 hectares of farmland and distributed fertilizer to 150,000 farmers.
Nigeria's food-security outlook is facing renewed pressure as the 2026 harvest approaches, with reduced cultivation, insecurity, high input costs, and climate variability threatening the volume of staple crops from northern Nigeria. This situation could prolong pressure on food prices and household purchasing power if market supplies are not sufficiently replenished.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) projects Nigeria’s 2026/27 rice production to decline by 6% to 8.3 million tonnes from 8.8 million tonnes in 2025/26, with cultivation area forecast to fall 7% to 4.2 million hectares. Similarly, maize production is projected to decrease by 5% to 10.9 million tonnes in 2026/27, with harvested area expected to drop 8% to 4.8 million hectares, largely due to high input costs and declining farmgate prices.
Nigeria's wheat output is expected to remain minimal, with local production projected at only 140,000 tonnes in 2026/27. To meet consumption estimated at 6.8 million tonnes, wheat imports are anticipated to rise to 7.2 million tonnes.
Agricultural experts, including Ubale Sani from Bayero University, Kano, highlight that the performance of northern agriculture is critical for Nigeria's food security. Sani noted that insecurity, high production costs, poor rural infrastructure, and unreliable irrigation systems are constraining farmers' capacity to increase output. These structural constraints extend beyond land availability.
In a positive development, the Kaduna State government announced the recovery of over 500,000 hectares of farmland previously controlled by bandits, enabling farmers to return to cultivation. The state also distributed 500 trucks of fertilizer to more than 150,000 smallholder farmers during the 2026 farming season. However, experts caution that access to land alone may not suffice if farmers continue to face high costs for fertilizer, fuel, labor, transportation, and irrigation.