Key facts
- Japan's rice production is expected to rebound in the 2026/27 marketing year.
- Rice prices are projected to fall significantly from highs seen in 2024 and 2025.
- Rice is anticipated to regain market share from wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year.
- Increased rice supplies could reduce consumption of feed corn and wheat.
- Food corn and barley consumption are expected to recover in MY 2026/27.
- Japan plans to lower the consumption tax rate on food and beverages starting April 2027.
Japan's rice production is forecast to rebound in the 2026/27 marketing year, with the latest projections exceeding last year's official figures. This recovery is expected to lead to a significant decline in rice prices from the historical highs experienced through 2024 and 2025. As a result, rice is anticipated to reclaim market share from wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year. With domestic supplies stabilizing, Japan's rice imports are expected to remain at the minimum market access volume. The government's decisions regarding the management of rice stocks, particularly excess private table rice and the replenishment of government reserves, will significantly influence the feed market. Increases in rice supply could lead to reduced consumption of feed corn and wheat. Meanwhile, food corn and barley consumption are projected to recover in MY 2026/27, following a cool summer that dampened demand for beverages in MY 2025/26. The Takaichi administration's plan to reduce the consumption tax rate on food and beverages, effective April 2027, is expected to boost overall food consumption.