Key facts
- Spain's constitutional court is expected to rule on October 6 on Carles Puigdemont's potential return.
- Puigdemont fled in 2017 to avoid jail for his role in Catalonia's failed independence push.
- An amnesty law passed in 2024 could allow Puigdemont to return without fear of arrest.
- Catalonia has been led by the non-nationalist PSC since 2024, fostering cooperation with Madrid.
- 82% of Catalans aged 18-30 still live with their parents due to economic pressures.
- The foreign-born population in Catalonia has grown to 18.7% from 13.8% in 2017.
Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who has lived in exile for nearly nine years, may soon be able to return to Spain if the country's constitutional court rules in his favor on October 6. The court is expected to decide whether the amnesty law, passed by the Spanish government in 2024, covers the charge of misuse of public funds, which was the last legal obstacle to his return.
Puigdemont fled in 2017 to avoid imprisonment for his role in the failed independence movement, for which nine of his colleagues received sentences of up to 13 years, though they were all released within three years.
Catalonia has undergone significant transformations since Puigdemont's departure. The political climate has shifted from fervent demonstrations and conflict with Madrid to one of cooperation. Since 2024, the region has been governed by the Socialists’ party of Catalonia (PSC), led by Salvador Illa, marking the first time since 1980 that a non-nationalist party has held power. This era of entente with Madrid aligns with the national government, also led by the Socialist Workers' party.
Economic issues have become more pressing for young Catalans, who face low wages, high rents, and inaccessible mortgages, leading 82% of those aged 18-30 to live with their parents. Puigdemont's party, Junts per Catalunya, recently voted against the government's housing proposals, a move that may not resonate with younger voters.
Demographically, Catalonia has also changed, with the foreign-born population increasing from 13.8% in 2017 to 18.7% currently. In Barcelona, immigrants constitute 32% of residents, representing 118 nationalities, and this figure rises to 50% among those aged 12-35. This demographic shift raises questions about Catalan identity, with figures like former president Jordi Pujol having defined a Catalan as anyone who lives and works in Catalonia.
The rise of far-right nationalist parties like Aliança Catalana, whose leader has expressed exclusionary views, has also pushed traditional parties like Junts per Catalunya to the right. Over the past 25 years, Catalonia has evolved from a bicultural, bilingual society to one that is multicultural and multilingual.
While Puigdemont's platform is rooted in identity and historical grievances against Spain, his vision may face greater challenges in selling to a population whose priorities have shifted and whose demographic makeup is more diverse. Support for independence, which never reached 50%, now hovers in the low 40s, and many immigrants have their own identity concerns and no particular issue with Spain. The increasing likelihood of parents having multiple nationalities may also dilute the importance of a singular national identity.