Key facts
- Kemi Badenoch's net favorable rating among voters is minus 15, a 20-point improvement from a year ago.
- Reform UK still leads the Conservatives in national voting intention polls.
- Badenoch replaced Mel Stride with Andrew Griffith as shadow chancellor and Priti Patel with Tom Tugendhat as shadow foreign secretary.
- Labour leader Andy Burnham plans to reform the "triple lock" system for state pensions.
- The Conservatives are polling around 18% to 19% nationally, lower than their 2024 election share.
Britain's Conservative Party is gathering for its conference in Birmingham with a sense of cautious optimism, driven by improved personal ratings for leader Kemi Badenoch and disarray within the right-wing Reform UK party. Badenoch, who took over the Conservatives in 2024 following a historic election defeat, can point to a net favorable rating of minus 15, a 20-point increase from a year ago, suggesting the public is warming to her.
The Conservatives' main rivals on the right, Reform UK, have faced a difficult summer marked by scrutiny over their finances and leader Nigel Farage's focus on a personal by-election campaign. This has created an opening for the Tories to regain ground on the right of the political spectrum, a position they had lost after Reform UK's strong local election performance in May.
Badenoch has also stamped her authority on the party's top team, revamping her Shadow Cabinet. Andrew Griffith replaced Mel Stride as shadow chancellor, bringing business experience, while Tom Tugendhat took over as shadow foreign secretary from Priti Patel. These changes aim to present a more credible alternative to Labour.
Furthermore, Labour leader Andy Burnham's proposal to reform the "triple lock" system for state pensions has provided the Conservatives with an attack line, as they seek to appeal to older voters who have traditionally supported them. Badenoch has criticized Burnham's plan, arguing it will not generate sufficient savings and will lead to tax rises.
Despite these positive developments, the Conservatives continue to lag significantly in national polls, hovering around 18% to 19% and trailing both Labour and Reform UK. Analysts caution that while voters may like Badenoch personally, they may not yet believe the party has the right plans or leadership team to govern effectively.