Key facts
- Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will deliver a speech Wednesday at 11 a.m.
- Labour has seen its poll numbers jump to 26% since July.
- Reform UK is polling at 19%, ahead of the Conservatives.
- Badenoch plans to emphasize cutting welfare to fund defense.
- The Conservatives aim to present themselves as the party of fiscal responsibility.
- There is no love lost between the Tories and Reform UK, but a coalition may be necessary for them to form a government.
POLITICO reporters are gearing up for the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, where leader Kemi Badenoch will seek to position the party as a credible alternative to Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government. Despite Badenoch's improved personal ratings, the Conservatives trail Labour in the polls and face a challenge from Nigel Farage's Reform UK.
POLITICO's UK Political Editor Dan Bloom will be closely watching Badenoch's Wednesday speech, questioning if she can end Burnham's 'honeymoon' period. He anticipates Badenoch will advocate for cutting welfare to fund defense and aim for a more abrasive tone than Burnham. The challenge for Badenoch is to differentiate the Tories in a crowded political marketplace, particularly on fiscal responsibility, and to appeal to voters in a multi-party system.
Senior Foreign and Defense Correspondent Esther Webber will focus on the Conservatives' stance against Labour's foreign policy, including potential dissent over sanctions on Israeli E1 settlements and a more conciliatory approach to China. The party's position on AI regulation, whether aligned with global coordination or a zero-regulation stance, will also be scrutinized. A side plot involves former Home Secretary Priti Patel's role in international party cooperation.
London Influence Reporter John Johnston notes that while many businesses sent skeleton staff to previous conferences, corporate passes for this year's event have been in demand, suggesting increased engagement. He will assess if the Tories have developed the ideas, unity, and leadership to address industry concerns, a perceived weakness in previous years.
Energy Reporter Abby Wallace will track the party's shift away from net-zero targets, with Badenoch advocating for ditching legally binding climate goals and increasing North Sea oil and gas drilling. The focus will be on whether this U-turn has permeated the party and how they propose to address rising energy bills, likely by prioritizing gas and nuclear power.
Financial Services Reporter Eleanor Myers will observe Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith's speech, anticipating a focus on Labour's potential bank tax increases. The Conservatives are expected to propose solutions for economic growth amid rising debt and interest rates.
Senior Technology Reporter Frank Hersey will look for differentiation in Tory tech policy compared to other parties, noting that approaches have been coalescing. Labour has already committed to a pro-growth agenda for AI.