Key facts
- Splits have emerged in the Conservative Party over the state pension triple lock.
- Labour plans to end the triple lock in its current form by April 2030 to fund social care.
- The triple lock policy is forecast to cost £15.5bn a year by 2030.
- Labour's proposed changes are forecast to save £11bn a year by 2040.
- Some Conservative MPs fear electoral repercussions from Reform UK if they oppose the triple lock.
- Polling indicates Labour could lose support from its voters over the pledge to end the policy.
Divisions have emerged within the Conservative Party regarding the future of the state pension triple lock, a policy that guarantees annual increases based on the highest of average earnings, inflation, or 2.5 per cent. Some MPs, including former cabinet minister Sir Andrew Mitchell and former chancellor Jeremy Hunt, argue that the triple lock must be reformed due to its escalating costs, which are projected to reach £15.5 billion annually by 2030, tripling its original estimate.
These calls for reform come as Labour leader Andy Burnham announced at the Labour conference that the party intends to end the triple lock in its current form by April 2030 to help fund social care. Labour's proposed "adjusted" lock would ensure the state pension rises by at least inflation or 2.5 per cent, while also maintaining its value relative to earnings over time. The Department for Work and Pensions estimates this change could save £11 billion annually by 2040.
However, some Conservative MPs are concerned about electoral consequences, particularly from Reform UK, which opposes Labour's plans. They fear that abandoning the triple lock could lead to them being "outflanked" by Reform, as polling suggests the policy is popular among Conservative and Reform voters. Kemi Badenoch, reacting to Burnham's proposal, stated that the plan was "falling apart under scrutiny" and would not yield sufficient savings for decades, implying further tax rises would be necessary.
Opposition parties have also criticized Labour's proposal. Nigel Farage accused the Prime Minister of "launching an offensive against our elderly," while Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey argued that social care funding should not come from "the pockets of our poorest pensioners." Green Party's Zack Polanski suggested that the government should "tax the rich" instead of targeting pensioners.