Key facts
- Conservative MPs agree the forthcoming party conference will be more upbeat than last year.
- Kemi Badenoch is seen by many in the party as doing well as leader.
- The Conservative Party is reportedly polling a distant third and would lose an election if one were held soon.
- Concerns exist that the party's focus on winning back support from Reform UK may alienate centrist voters.
- Recent Conservative pledges include barring non-Britons from social housing and cutting benefits.
- The party has pledged to slash overseas aid to fund new prison places.
The Conservative Party is preparing for its conference in Birmingham, with internal consensus suggesting a more upbeat and unified mood compared to the previous year. Leader Kemi Badenoch is reportedly performing well, but significant concerns remain about the party's standing in opinion polls and its electoral prospects.
Despite a better mood, one Conservative MP noted that "the facts are still very poor," highlighting the party's distant third-place polling and the likelihood of a significant defeat in a snap election. This sentiment casts a shadow over the upcoming gathering, especially as it comes nearly two years after Badenoch was elected leader following a poor election result in 2024.
Some within the party are worried that Badenoch's strategy of focusing on regaining support from Nigel Farage's Reform UK may alienate centrist voters, potentially leading to a perception of the party as the "nasty party" once again. This phrase, coined by Theresa May in 2002, warned against a narrow voter base and punitive policies. Recent policy pledges, such as barring non-Britons from social housing and cutting benefits, along with a proposal to slash overseas aid to fund prison places, are seen by some as examples of this.
However, many MPs do not share these concerns, with some constituents reportedly more worried about welfare costs. The relative lack of open dissent, even on contentious issues like leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), is partly attributed to respect for Badenoch's decision-making process and the apparent lack of appetite for a fight from centrist factions like the One Nation group.
Badenoch's improved performance in the Commons and a rise in her personal poll ratings, albeit from a low base, have contributed to a sense of purpose within the party. Last year's conference was seen as critical for her leadership, but she is now viewed more favorably by MPs. Despite this, her net favourability remains negative, and voters sometimes describe her as "mean" and "cold."
Robert Jenrick's departure to Reform UK three months after being sacked by Badenoch has also been cited as a factor in reducing internal "toxicity." Some believe the party has "outsourced" its toxicity to Reform UK, while also noting that both Reform and Keir Starmer's party no longer dismiss the Conservatives as irrelevant.
Centrist groups like Prosper UK, launched by Andy Street and Ruth Davidson, are advocating for a greater focus on moderate voters. David Gauke, a vice-chair of Prosper UK, argues that the party needs to appeal to "politically homeless" moderate Tories to win back seats in areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey.
Political analysts suggest Badenoch's strategy may be to prevent Reform UK from gaining too much ground and hope for its eventual implosion. However, questions remain about the viability of this approach, with the party's vote share showing little improvement and Badenoch's personal ratings still in negative territory.