Quebecers are heading to the polls in provincial elections that are likely to result in the Parti Québécois (PQ), a separatist party, forming the government for the first time in over a decade. If polls are accurate, the PQ will govern the province of roughly nine million people.
The resurgence of the PQ is largely attributed to its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old Oxford-educated lawyer. Analysts suggest his success stems from a right-wing stance on identity issues, including blaming immigrants for societal problems like overcrowded schools, increased crime, and high housing prices. Plamondon has pledged to reduce immigration levels and ban "conspicuous" religious symbols for teachers and students.
Despite the PQ's social democratic roots, many Quebecers reportedly agree with Plamondon's rhetoric on social issues, even if they do not support independence. Radio host Patrick Lagacé noted that Quebecers have become more hardened on issues of systemic racism and religious accommodation.
A significant factor in Plamondon's popularity has been his promise to hold a referendum on independence, though a majority of Quebecers do not currently favor such a vote, especially with Canada engaged in a trade dispute with the US. The province largely supported Liberal leader Mark Carney in the last federal election due to his firm stance against the Trump administration.
The PQ has also benefited from a division of the right-leaning nationalist vote, particularly around Quebec City, where the Parti Conservateur du Québec has gained traction. Poll analyst Philippe Fournier stated that the PQ is benefiting from a vote split among those who oppose it.
However, the PQ's mandate remains uncertain, with polls placing them around 30% support, potentially below the threshold for a majority government. Plamondon has also signaled intentions to confront the federal government, suggesting measures like defunding the lieutenant-governor's office and abolishing ties to the monarchy. He has criticized Prime Minister Mark Carney's plans to increase immigration rates, calling it an "abuse of power" that would negatively impact French-language services in Quebec.