Key facts
- The cost of living is a primary concern for voters heading into the midterm elections.
- Gasoline prices have increased approximately 46% nationally from January 2025 to late September 2026.
- Electricity prices in most swing states have risen faster than the national average.
- Housing prices have also surged faster than the national average in most swing states.
- Candidates are proposing various solutions to lower costs, including gas tax suspensions and export bans.
The upcoming midterm congressional elections are largely expected to hinge on the cost of everyday goods, with voters prioritizing affordability as a key issue. Concerns over gas prices, electricity rates, and housing costs are at the forefront of many voters' minds, influencing their decisions on who to support.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August indicated that 47% of registered voters consider the cost of living to be the most important factor in their choice of candidate. This sentiment is amplified by ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Iran, which disrupt oil markets and contribute to price volatility. Tariffs have also been cited as a factor adding upward pressure to prices.
Consumer price growth stood at 3.4% in August, a figure that, while down from post-pandemic highs, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. In response, the Fed implemented its first interest rate hike since 2023 in September, with further increases possible before the year's end, aimed at curbing inflation.
Several key Senate races in states like Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas are considered toss-ups. Business Insider examined price trends in these states during President Donald Trump's second term and how candidates are addressing affordability.
Gasoline prices have seen a significant increase, with GasBuddy data showing a national rise of about 46% from January 2025 to late September 2026. This surge is attributed to volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and high crude oil costs, despite the typical seasonal decrease in autumn. Politicians are exploring measures like gas tax suspensions, though geopolitical tensions limit their effectiveness.
In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan has advocated for a ban on diesel exports to lower prices, while his Democratic opponent, Mary Peltola, has criticized rising gas prices and Sullivan's voting record. In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is campaigning on gas and grocery affordability, noting the high cost of fuel in the state. His Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, proposes suspending state and federal gas taxes and a temporary diesel export embargo.
Electricity prices have also outpaced the national average in many swing states. Maine, for instance, experienced a 24% increase in electricity prices from January 2025 to July 2026, compared to the national average of about 15%. Concerns about the impact of the data center boom on energy bills are prevalent, with a Consumer Reports survey revealing widespread worry among Americans. Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins' office highlighted the burden of high energy costs on various sectors, while her opponent, Troy Jackson, has faced criticism for energy cost increases during his legislative tenure.
In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico aims to ensure large energy consumers fund their own infrastructure improvements, while Republican Ken Paxton supports measures for data centers to recycle water and produce their own energy to mitigate consumer costs.
Housing prices have also seen substantial increases in swing states, with Michigan's median home sales price rising 23% from January 2025 to August 2026, exceeding the national average increase of 6%. Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather indicated that the housing market shows no immediate signs of improvement, with rising mortgage rates exacerbating the situation. Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan has proposed down payment assistance, lower interest rates, and incentives for new housing construction as part of his platform.