Key facts
- Houthis captured Perim island in the Bab al-Mandab strait, a key global shipping route.
- The capture of Perim island follows the loss of the port city of Mocha by forces allied to Yemen's UN-backed government.
- The Bab al-Mandab strait connects the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean.
- About 12% of the world's goods are typically shipped through the Bab al-Mandab strait.
- The Houthi offensive has resulted in over 500 deaths and displaced approximately 46,000 people.
The Houthi capture of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, including Perim island overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb strait, is reshaping the balance of power in the Gulf and confronting Saudi Arabia and its neighbors with difficult choices. By securing this position, the Iran-aligned group has opened a second pressure point, threatening Saudi oil exports diverted from the Strait of Hormuz.
Regional officials and analysts suggest this strategy aims to raise oil prices and fuel inflation by threatening Red Sea shipping while Iran potentially chokes off Hormuz. This could force Gulf states to either absorb mounting economic costs or seek accommodation with Tehran to protect trade and economic stability.
Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst, described the capture of islands near Bab el-Mandeb as a "game changer" that grants the Houthis "far greater geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States and global trade."
Saudi Arabia had rerouted much of its crude through Red Sea ports since the war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, the kingdom closed its East-West pipeline after a drone attack, which it blamed on drones from Iraq. The Bab al-Mandab strait connects the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean, and approximately 12% of the world's goods are typically shipped through it. The Houthi offensive has reportedly resulted in over 500 deaths and displaced approximately 46,000 people.
Mounting economic costs and reports of U.S. President Donald Trump's refusal to agree to a Saudi request for U.S. strikes against the Houthis are reinforcing a view in some Gulf capitals that negotiations with Tehran are becoming a necessity for self-preservation. This shift may become visible as soon as Monday, when Gulf foreign ministers are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart in Oman as part of an effort to secure a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through Hormuz. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan is expected to attend, along with representatives from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated he had productive talks with UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in New Delhi, agreeing to "put the past aside and look forward to the future, and how we can build a future together."
Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute suggested that Gulf states may increasingly focus on protecting their interests and surviving hostilities independently, potentially leading to parallel diplomacy with Tehran and a broader security strategy less dependent on the United States alone. The Houthis, described as one of Iran's most effective regional allies, are seen as weaponizing geography to create value for Tehran, impacting the international and global oil economies.