European Union capitals are quietly preparing for the possibility of a hybrid attack that results in multiple casualties, a scenario that EU diplomats and officials consider increasingly likely. These preparations are revealing internal divisions regarding the EU's role in security matters and whether its efforts are redundant with those of NATO.
Recent discussions among EU ambassadors, held in restricted formats, have intensified since the discovery of an explosives-laden drone at Leipzig airport in August. While the EU has previously addressed hybrid threats like cyberattacks and election interference with a 'hybrid toolbox,' the latest talks have zeroed in on the risk of more severe attacks causing widespread harm. A meeting last Wednesday specifically focused on such casualty-inducing scenarios.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU has observed an intensified campaign of cyberattacks, sabotage, and other covert operations across the bloc. European justice Commissioner Michael McGrath acknowledged the growing number of threats and the EU's efforts to enhance its capacity for anticipation, detection, early warning, and collective response.
Discussions among EU diplomats and ministers have included plans for deploying emergency response teams, allocating EU funds to affected states, and establishing communication protocols for EU leaders. A senior EU diplomat emphasized the need for preparedness, citing the Leipzig incident as evidence that serious events causing multiple casualties are possible. Another official suggested that given the scale of Russia's actions, casualties are likely to occur eventually.
The EU is grappling with frequent reports of hybrid attacks, which are defined by the EU and NATO as subversive activities below the threshold of direct warfare. Recent incidents include a ship sinking in the Black Sea, a suspicious fire at a Polish Starlink station, and a plot to plant incendiary devices across the EU and UK, alongside airspace violations.
Teija Tiilikainen, director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, stated that as Russia employs more lethal tools, casualties are likely to occur, whether intentionally or unintentionally. A NATO diplomat expressed concern that the death of an allied citizen would create overwhelming pressure for both the EU and NATO to act.
However, these EU-level discussions are drawing criticism from some member states who believe the EU is overstepping its security mandate and potentially duplicating NATO's core functions. Oana Lungescu, a distinguished fellow at RUSI and former NATO spokesperson, warned that confusion and duplication could slow down crucial decision-making.
Further complicating matters are concerns about the security of EU communications and the potential for sensitive information shared in ambassadorial gatherings to be leaked, with some diplomats citing past instances of information reaching Moscow. This has led some capitals to prefer NATO formats for sharing sensitive intelligence.
The push for enhanced EU security coordination comes as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seeks to bolster the bloc's security credentials. She has proposed an 'emergency security protocol' and a 'European Security Council,' expected to be part of a forthcoming 'European Security Strategy.' However, some diplomats argue these initiatives would be slow to implement and might duplicate existing EU mechanisms, suggesting a focus on existing crisis-response tools like the Integrated Political Response (IPCR) instead.
