Key facts
- Russia is conducting a sustained campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks, military provocations, and airspace violations against Europe.
- Experts warn that Europe has key gaps in air defense, drones, communications, intelligence, and joint command.
- Drones account for over 80% of Russian targets destroyed on the battlefield.
- European defense budgets allocate only about 2% to drone technology, despite its impact.
- The EU and Ukraine are deepening cooperation in drone development and counter-drone systems.
Russia is testing the limits of Europe's security through a campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks, and airspace violations without formally entering open war, according to experts. These actions, described as a "sub-threshold war," have intensified since 2024 as Moscow probes how far it can escalate pressure without provoking a direct military response.
Incidents include drones crossing NATO airspace, such as an attempted drone attack at Leipzig Airport in Germany in early August, which Germany attributed to Russia. Security policy expert Olena Davlikanova stated that these incidents increasingly resemble a war fought in small steps against the European model of freedom and solidarity.
While Europe has strengthened its defenses since 2022, significant gaps remain, particularly in air defense, drone capabilities, communications, intelligence, and joint command, according to experts. Strategic foresight expert Leopold Schmertzing fears that Europe may only fully awaken to the threat when its own capitals are attacked and citizens are killed, by which time it could be too late.
Ukraine's experience highlights the outsized impact of unmanned systems, with President Volodymyr Zelensky noting that drones destroy over 80% of Russian targets. However, European defense spending has not adequately reflected this reality, with drone technology receiving only about 2% of European defense budgets, according to Kateryna Mykhalko, managing director of the German-Ukrainian defense industry consortium New Age Defense.
To address these challenges, the EU and Ukraine are deepening cooperation through initiatives like the EU-Ukraine Drone Alliance, aiming to accelerate the development and production of drones and counter-drone systems by combining Ukraine's battlefield experience with Europe's industrial capacity. The dual challenge for Europe is to close military capability gaps and develop a comprehensive response to the unfolding forms of Russian aggression.