Key facts
- El Niño is expected to intensify and last until February 2027, according to the WMO.
- Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are projected to reach a record 3.7 degrees Celsius above normal.
- This temperature anomaly is higher than the previous record of 2.6C set from November 2015 to January 2016.
- El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, influencing global weather patterns.
- Mean global temperatures in August tied with July 2023 as the hottest month on record.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast that the current El Niño event is set to intensify before peaking in December and is almost certain to continue until February 2027. This development could make it one of the strongest El Niño events recorded since at least 1950.
According to the WMO's monthly climate bulletin, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are expected to reach a record 3.7 degrees Celsius (6.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal between October and December. This surpasses the previous record anomaly of 2.6 degrees Celsius observed from November 2015 to January 2016.
WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo noted that the ocean from which the heat is being drawn is the warmest ever measured, providing more heat to be released. El Niño is described as the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a natural climate pattern that influences weather globally, typically causing higher global temperatures and disrupting rainfall patterns, leading to droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others.
Mean global temperatures in August reached 16.96 degrees Celsius, matching July 2023 as the hottest month on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab have predicted that this year's "super-El Niño" could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide from June 2023 to February 2027.