Key facts
- Argentina's 2026-27 soybean production is forecast at 49 million tonnes.
- Planted area for soybeans is expected to rise to 17.4 million hectares in 2026-27.
- El Niño conditions are likely to persist, bringing above-average rainfall to Argentina.
- AgroENSO, a tool developed by CONICET and INTA, analyzes El Niño's impact on Argentine crops.
- Corn and soybeans show the strongest response to ENSO conditions in Argentina.
- First-crop soybean yields were above average in 11 of 12 El Niño seasons studied.
Argentina's soybean production for the 2026-27 marketing year is projected to be 49 million tonnes, a slight decrease from the 50 million tonnes expected for the 2025-26 cycle, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. This forecast comes despite an anticipated increase in planted area to 17.4 million hectares, up from 16.5 million hectares in the previous cycle.
The FAS attributes the projected decline in yields to many regions currently experiencing historically high yields, particularly for second-crop soybeans. However, the agency cautioned that the developing El Niño weather pattern could alter this projection. El Niño typically brings above-average precipitation to Argentina, and many in the industry anticipate a "super El Niño" year, which could significantly boost yields.
Scientists from CONICET and INTA have developed AgroENSO, a free interactive web application that uses 35 years of climate and yield data to estimate how El Niño and La Niña conditions have affected Argentina’s major field crops, including soybeans. The platform adjusts historical yields for technological improvements, allowing for a clearer view of yield variability associated with ENSO phases. According to CONICET researcher Juan Pablo Monzón, lead developer of AgroENSO, the tool allows users to quantify the impact of El Niño and La Niña on crop yields in specific regions.
Corn and soybeans show the strongest response to ENSO conditions nationally, with first-crop soybean yields exceeding the adjusted average in 11 of the 12 El Niño seasons covered by the dataset. The AgroENSO platform also highlights that examining the frequency of above-average growing seasons, not just average yield changes, can provide valuable information for crop risk management.
Fertilizer prices are also a key determinant for the 2026-27 season. While prices spiked recently due to global events, they have since returned to February levels. However, the FAS warned that a resurgence in fertilizer prices could encourage more producers to favor soy over corn due to soy's lower fertilizer requirements.