Key facts
- Global diesel prices are near record highs due to supply shortages.
- Gulf countries' net diesel exports averaged 390,000 bpd in August, a quarter of pre-war levels.
- Combined Gulf and Russian diesel/gasoil exports were down 1.6 million bpd from February by August.
- China suspended fuel exports for October to preserve domestic inventories.
- European refining capacity is 3 million bpd below its 2009 peak.
- The US has become a key supplier, with diesel exports peaking over 1.9 million bpd in summer 2026.
Global diesel prices remain elevated due to a confluence of factors impacting supply, particularly from key exporting regions. Net diesel exports from Gulf countries in August were only 390,000 barrels per day, a significant drop from pre-war levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
This shortage is exacerbated by Russia's extended diesel export restrictions through October, following Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. Furthermore, Gulf and Iranian flows have been disrupted, leading to a combined shortfall of 1.6 million barrels per day in diesel and gasoil exports from these regions compared to February levels by August. China has also suspended its fuel exports for October to maintain domestic inventories.
Europe, which produces only about 70% of its own diesel and has seen its refining capacity decline significantly since 2009, has been relying on the United States to fill the gap. US diesel exports peaked at over 1.9 million barrels per day in summer 2026. However, the disruption is concentrated in major exporting corridors, giving remaining suppliers significant pricing power.
The US diesel crack spread, a measure of refining margins, hit a record $102.20 a barrel on August 17. The broader Middle Eastern refining disruption has also been substantial, with over 20% of the region's capacity offline due to conflict and export route issues. Specifically, Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery has not loaded diesel since July 24 due to Houthi attacks.