Key facts
- Global diesel exports have fallen by about one million barrels per day since 2025.
- The conflict involving Iran has had a greater impact on global diesel export volumes than the Ukraine war.
- US retail diesel prices were $6.20 per gallon on October 5, close to the record high.
- UK diesel prices reached 199 pence per litre on October 5.
- Russian diesel exports fell by approximately 670,000 barrels per day.
- Gulf states' diesel exports declined by about 730,000 barrels per day.
Global diesel prices have surged due to reduced exports, with analysis suggesting the conflict involving Iran has had a more significant impact than the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump has attributed the price hikes to Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries, urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to cease such actions.
Average US retail diesel prices reached $6.20 per gallon on October 5, nearing the record high of $6.50 seen on September 21, a substantial increase from around $3.50 before the conflict with Iran. Similarly, UK diesel prices hit a record high of 199 pence per litre on October 5.
Global diesel exports have declined by approximately one million barrels per day since 2025, falling from 6.8 million barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels per day by September 2026. While some countries like the US have increased their exports, overall net global exports have decreased, contributing to higher retail prices.
Russia's daily diesel exports have fallen from 810,000 barrels in 2025 to about 140,000 barrels in September 2026, largely due to Ukraine's strikes on its refineries. The Middle East, a key hub for diesel production, has also seen a sharp decline in exports. The Gulf states' daily exports dropped from 1.4 million barrels in 2025 to 670,000 barrels in September 2026. This decrease is attributed to the US-Iran war disrupting the flow of refined diesel through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian strikes on tankers and US blockades impacting shipping, although crude oil flows have largely recovered.