Key facts
- A super El Niño is expected to bring warmer winter temperatures to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and parts of China.
- Europe's gas storage sites are 73% full, below the five-year average.
- Supply from Qatar is severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Europe's natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub surged to their highest level since early 2023.
A super El Niño weather pattern is forecast to bring warmer winter temperatures to key Asian LNG importers including South Korea, Japan, and parts of China. This could reduce their demand for liquefied natural gas, potentially freeing up more cargoes for Europe, which is facing challenges in adequately filling its gas storage sites.
Major weather models indicate that Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and parts of China could experience a warmer winter. This potential decrease in Asian gas demand would be a welcome development for Europe, where gas storage facilities are currently only 73% full, significantly below the more than 86% seen on average over the previous five years for this period.