Key facts
- Pakistan faces potential natural gas shortages this winter.
- LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupted.
- Pakistan sourced 99% of its LNG from Qatar last year.
- Qatar declared force majeure on exports following Iranian strikes.
- Pakistan must pay over $1 billion for winter LNG on the spot market.
- An additional 10 LNG cargoes are needed for winter delivery.
Pakistan is anticipating significant natural gas shortages during the upcoming winter months due to severe disruptions in LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Masood Nabi, CEO of Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL). Speaking at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh on Thursday, Nabi highlighted that the availability of gas is not the primary concern, but rather the choked transit route. Last year, Pakistan relied almost entirely on Qatar for its LNG imports under term contracts. However, following Iranian strikes in March that damaged Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG export hub, Qatar declared force majeure on its exports. This has forced Pakistan to turn to the more expensive spot market, driving up power generation costs. While some Qatari cargoes have reached Pakistan after Iran provided assurances of safe passage, term supplies remain cheaper than the current spot market prices, which are escalating due to competition from Asian and European buyers ahead of winter. Pakistan estimates it will need to spend over $1 billion to secure sufficient LNG for the winter, requiring the purchase of an additional 10 spot cargoes for delivery between November 2026 and February 2027 at double the price of its usual term imports.