Key facts
- Russia's wheat exports are forecast to decrease by 17% in the 2026-2027 agricultural season.
- Exports are projected to fall to 40 million tons in 2026-2027 from 43.2 million tons in 2025-2026.
- In the first ten days of September, Russia shipped only 418,000 tons of wheat, a 5.9-fold drop year-on-year.
- The Russian Grain Union described the decline in grain and legume exports as unprecedented.
- Russia is expected to remain the world's leading wheat exporter despite the projected decrease.
Russia's wheat exports are expected to decline by 17% in the 2026-2027 agricultural season, according to forecasts. ProZerno Director Vladimir Petrichenko stated that exports will decrease from 43.2 million tons in the 2025-2026 season to 40 million tons in 2026-2027. Despite this reduction, Russia is anticipated to maintain its status as the world's largest wheat exporter.
Data presented by Petrichenko indicates that wheat exports were 40.2 million tons in the 2024-2025 season. The projected decline of slightly over 7% compared to the current agricultural season highlights a downward trend.
Earlier in September, shipments of wheat from Russia in the first ten days of the month were only 418,000 tons, a significant drop of 5.9 times compared to the same period last year when exports reached 2.4 million tons. The Russian Grain Union has characterized this sharp decline in exports of grains and legumes as unprecedented. While specific reasons have not been fully disclosed, experts suggest potential factors include internal regulatory restrictions, logistical challenges, and the impact of international sanctions and political considerations.